Shoot First or Score First? Inside the Numbers of the NHL Shootout
By Andrew Trimble
The Zamboni doors are still closed. Overtime is over. One player takes the puck at center ice, and the goalie has the whole rink to watch him coming. If you’re the coach, do you want your team taking that first shot?
The numbers give us two very different answers. In a study of 1,138 NHL shootouts, the team that shot first won 49.5% of the time. The team that scored first won 80.9% of the time. That’s the difference between getting the first chance and putting the other team in a position where it has to answer. statsportsconsulting.com
| What happened | Shootout win rate |
|---|---|
| Team took the first attempt | 49.5% |
| Team scored the first goal | 80.9% |
The First Goal Matters. Does It Change the Next Shot?
A separate study found nearly the same result for shooting order. The team that went first won 49.6% of the time, even though teams with the choice usually wanted to go first. It’s easy to see the appeal. Send out a confident shooter and you might have the lead before the other team touches the puck. Across the study, though, choosing the first attempt gave teams no clear edge. statsbylopez.com
The first goal is a different story. Researcher Michael Schuckers simulated a million shootouts where each shot was independent of the previous result. Even without a momentum effect built into the model, the team that scored first won 80.5% of the simulations, close to the 80.9% observed in his historical sample. A goal already on the board explains much of the advantage. You don’t have to assume the next shooter is rattled to understand why the lead matters. Statistical Sports Consulting
Which Teams Made the Most of It?
In the NHL’s March 2026 snapshot, Philadelphia led with nine shootout wins, while Anaheim was 8–0. Columbus was 6–1. The Flyers had the most wins at that point, but the Ducks had the better record per opportunity. Both numbers are useful when someone asks which team was best in the shootout. media.d3.nhle.com
An NHL historical snapshot offers an even clearer example. Buffalo led that table with 93 wins in 176 shootouts, a 52.8% win rate. Colorado had 89 wins in 142 shootouts, good for 62.7%. Colorado won four fewer shootouts despite getting 34 fewer chances. That’s why I’d look at wins, win percentage, and opportunities together. media.d3.nhle.com
Who Would You Send Over the Boards?
Patrick Kane passed Jonathan Toews for the career shootout goals record when he scored his 53rd on February 11, 2025. Toews’ previous mark tells a story of its own. He reached 52 goals on 110 attempts, converting 47.3%. Those figures mark the record change and Toews’ previous record, rather than a live leaderboard. guinnessworldrecords.com
Then there’s Trevor Zegras. With Anaheim, he scored on 13 of 21 attempts, a 61.9% conversion rate. That’s a much smaller sample than Toews’ 110 attempts, but it’s an impressive run. And his shootout winner for Philadelphia against Pittsburgh in March 2026 is a good reminder that a specialist can decide a game even when someone else does the scoring in regulation. ANA Records
What I’d Take to Practice
If I’m picking three shooters, I want to know what each player can execute at game speed. Can they sell a shot? Can they change pace without losing control? Do they have a second option when the goalie takes away their favorite move? I’d run a short shootout at the end of practice and track attempts, goals, and saves for a few weeks. Give the goalies something to compete for, too.
The next time an NHL game goes to a shootout, watch the first shooter’s speed, then watch the goalie’s feet. That’s where the one-on-one starts. And if you’re behind the bench with the game on the line, who’s your first shooter?
